Over/Under 2.5 Goals System
Goals are the only true constant in a football match. Throughout a season teams will win, lose and draw whereas goals will just keep flooding in. You may have been disappointed when your 1/7 favourite was beaten out 2-1 in a game they were leading from the opening minutes but I was quietly pleased because my Over 2.5 goal bet had just come in again.
This is the best part of betting on the goal market. No longer do you have to pit two teams against each other instead when you bet on the goal market the two teams are working together to provide you with betting profits!
I prefer to bet on the Over in the goals markets, normally the 2.5 goal market. This means that I like to bet that there will be Over 2.5 goals in a certain match. If there are then 3 or more goals I win, if there are 0, 1 or 2 goals I will lose. Conversely if I were to back Under 2.5 goals then 0, 1 or 2 goals would result in profit while 3+ would result in a loss.
There are a number of different goal markets you can bet on and after you have read and absorbed this information you should be able to have a go at all of them. The most popular ones are Over 0.5, Over 1.5 and so on up to usually Over 4.5 but with some bookmakers you can get up to Over 7.5. There are also 1st half goals and individual team goals that you can be betting. We prefer the 2.5 goals market because the odds are usually pretty decent while still having a pretty good strike rate, with 1.5 goals or less the strike rate required is much greater because of the odds and with 3.5 goals the odds are often not enough to cover the strike rate needed. 2.5 goals is the optimum level for odds and strike rate which makes it a perfect market for betting.
There is also another direction you can go in and that is spread betting. With spread betting you are paid your stake multiplied by per goal it is over the spread. E.g. you have backed there will be Over 2.45 goals in Match X, in the end the match finishes 4-2, instead of just winning your stake x the odds, you will win the total goal make-up (6) take away the spread (2.45) multiplied by your stake. So in the first example you would have made £10 if you backed £10 and the odds were 2.00. In the second case you would have made £35.50. Basically what I am trying to say is you can make a nice bit of money through spread betting if you think there are going to be even more than 2.5 goals in a game. With spread betting you are awarded by how correct you are not just if you were correct, this is helpful with goals betting because we are no longer limited to restricting ourselves to 1 particular market (Over 2.5, Over 3.5, Over 4.5 etc) instead we can back the Total Goal Spread and smile as every extra goal means extra money.
**Warning** Spread betting comes with additional risks to traditional odds betting and it is possible to lose more than you stake. You win more the more correct you are but you also lose more the more wrong you are.
I said that I prefer backing Over when dealing with goals. This is mainly due to the fact that I think it is much easier to determine teams who are likely to score than it is to determine teams who are unlikely to score. Especially as there are a huge number of ‘freak’ goals that occur in football. Goals can come from Penalties, Incorrect Offside Decisions, Goalkeeping Errors, Own Goals and the occasional Beach Ball! All of these things cannot be accounted for beforehand so if you were betting Over these things would all be working for you whereas if you were betting Under you would need to add in an extra risk variable to account for unforeseen goals.
Also when dealing with Over in the goals market you are able to better identify players who are going to score goals, it’s quite difficult to isolate players who will not score goals, or stop goals being scored. Obviously the goal keeper and defence has a lot to do with this but judging whether they will be beaten is a much easier task than judging whether they will come through!
This guide therefore is designed to help you in 2 main ways. Firstly we have the beginner’s system. This system gives you step by step instructions to follow which, if you follow correctly, will ensure that you profit from the 2.5 goals market. Then we have the Advanced Training section. This section will dissect the goals market, goal scorers, teams, different match types, the odds, individual players and strike partnerships and will provide you with the betting knowledge so that you can be able to look at a particular game and be able to say with conviction.
“There will be at least X amount of goals in this game”.
I have had people tell me after they read this manual that they were seeing win rates of over 80% which when the odds for the 2.5 goal market is typically between 1.6 and 2.4 then you can see just how profitable a good understanding of the goals market can be.
So start off by reading the Beginner’s system which outlines a basic system that I have used for years that has given me a pretty decent 60% strike rate with the average odds being around 1.9. Then once you have gotten used to doing that read the advanced system that will teach you as opposed to just telling you what to do. You will learn how to analyse games based on a number of key concepts and ultimately you should be able to read exactly how a game is going to play out to an incredible degree of accuracy!