Archive for March, 2014
In Arsene We Trust’ but for how long? no comments
The stadium that stands as a symbol of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal is threatening to become the court of public opinion in which his future is decided.
Successive home games beginning tonight with Swansea’s visit offers not only the chance to heal the wounds from Saturday’s 6-0 humiliation at Chelsea but also an occasion for Wenger to gauge whether he still has the popular vote.
There is no doubt in the boardroom. A three-year contract representing a small pay increase to nearly £8million a season has been on the table for some time. Wenger’s commitment remains complete but conviction in his abilities less so.
In among the acclamation for Wenger’s tenure stretching to 1,000 games, former Arsenal vice-chairman David Dein revealed the Frenchman’s habit of scrutinising his performance at the end of every season.
That introspection will be more rigorous this time around. Wenger is waiting to see how his team finish this campaign and the reaction of the club’s supporters to that denouement before formally extending his stay until at least 2016, with rumours of a shortened two-year deal surfacing today.
One of the banners may say ‘In Arsene We Trust’ but Emirates Stadium is no stranger to hostility.
Wenger has been subjected to chants of “You don’t know what you’re doing” in the past and, while the mood has been positive since the opening-day debacle against Aston Villa, there remains a faction of fans unhappy with the 64-year-old’s management.
And they surface with a vengeance on days like Saturday. The shambolic capitulation at Stamford Bridge reinforced the dissenters’ view: he is tactically inflexible, the team lack leaders, he should have bought a striker, he must spend more money and they still need more midfield bite. Ultimately, they believe Wenger has taken Arsenal as far as he can.
A record of one win from their last 15 matches against top-four opposition over the past five seasons identifies a clear issue that has not been addressed: three heavy losses and 17 goals shipped at Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool this season represent a serial nightmare revealing an underlying problem.
Lunchtime kick-offs are no excuse, even if they exacerbate the demands of European travel that preceded visits to the Etihad Stadium and Anfield. City are next up on Saturday evening as Arsenal look to improve that dismal record against their closest rivals but tonight’s encounter against a team without a win in eight games is a test of togetherness.
Typically, Wenger remains faithful to his players. “The crowd know that it is a very important game and I’m confident they will be behind our team and support us,” he said. “I think the crowd acknowledged since the start of the season that the team’s attitude was spot on, that they have given absolutely everything. You cannot fault this team for not wanting to do well.
“If we missed a game on Saturday I believe that overall, over the season, we played difficult cup games and difficult games in the Champions League, but this team has turned up with complete focus.
“I must say that this team is an absolute credit to the club with their attitude. They deserve success and therefore I hope that our crowd will be behind our team. It is a time to stick together. The Premier League is, of course, vital and the FA Cup as well is important. The season is always decided by how well you finish, so at the most important moment it’s vital that we stick together.”
The FA Cup’s importance to Arsenal cannot be underestimated. Win it and the trophy drought ends at nine years with a victory that can be painted as a segue to greater success. Lose it, especially given the absence of anyone in the top half of the Premier League left to oppose them, and the anger will be deafening.
A first League title since 2004 is now unlikely, although two wins this week would keep the faintest of hopes alive. An early goal tonight would at least settle the nerves and stem any latent vitriol. Wenger is believed to have been shaken by the antipathy towards him from some supporters in the darker moments since signing his last extension in 2010.
The vast majority remain supportive but you do not have to travel far to find an Arsenal fan ready to call time on Wenger’s 17-and-a-half years. Arsenal have benefited from home comforts this season. Wenger had previously voiced his concerns that the team were inhibited at home due to the unease in the crowd but this season they have the best defensive record of any Premier League team in front of their own fans. He needs that positive relationship to continue.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals System no comments
Goals are the only true constant in a football match. Throughout a season teams will win, lose and draw whereas goals will just keep flooding in. You may have been disappointed when your 1/7 favourite was beaten out 2-1 in a game they were leading from the opening minutes but I was quietly pleased because my Over 2.5 goal bet had just come in again.
This is the best part of betting on the goal market. No longer do you have to pit two teams against each other instead when you bet on the goal market the two teams are working together to provide you with betting profits!
I prefer to bet on the Over in the goals markets, normally the 2.5 goal market. This means that I like to bet that there will be Over 2.5 goals in a certain match. If there are then 3 or more goals I win, if there are 0, 1 or 2 goals I will lose. Conversely if I were to back Under 2.5 goals then 0, 1 or 2 goals would result in profit while 3+ would result in a loss.
There are a number of different goal markets you can bet on and after you have read and absorbed this information you should be able to have a go at all of them. The most popular ones are Over 0.5, Over 1.5 and so on up to usually Over 4.5 but with some bookmakers you can get up to Over 7.5. There are also 1st half goals and individual team goals that you can be betting. We prefer the 2.5 goals market because the odds are usually pretty decent while still having a pretty good strike rate, with 1.5 goals or less the strike rate required is much greater because of the odds and with 3.5 goals the odds are often not enough to cover the strike rate needed. 2.5 goals is the optimum level for odds and strike rate which makes it a perfect market for betting.
There is also another direction you can go in and that is spread betting. With spread betting you are paid your stake multiplied by per goal it is over the spread. E.g. you have backed there will be Over 2.45 goals in Match X, in the end the match finishes 4-2, instead of just winning your stake x the odds, you will win the total goal make-up (6) take away the spread (2.45) multiplied by your stake. So in the first example you would have made £10 if you backed £10 and the odds were 2.00. In the second case you would have made £35.50. Basically what I am trying to say is you can make a nice bit of money through spread betting if you think there are going to be even more than 2.5 goals in a game. With spread betting you are awarded by how correct you are not just if you were correct, this is helpful with goals betting because we are no longer limited to restricting ourselves to 1 particular market (Over 2.5, Over 3.5, Over 4.5 etc) instead we can back the Total Goal Spread and smile as every extra goal means extra money.
**Warning** Spread betting comes with additional risks to traditional odds betting and it is possible to lose more than you stake. You win more the more correct you are but you also lose more the more wrong you are.
I said that I prefer backing Over when dealing with goals. This is mainly due to the fact that I think it is much easier to determine teams who are likely to score than it is to determine teams who are unlikely to score. Especially as there are a huge number of ‘freak’ goals that occur in football. Goals can come from Penalties, Incorrect Offside Decisions, Goalkeeping Errors, Own Goals and the occasional Beach Ball! All of these things cannot be accounted for beforehand so if you were betting Over these things would all be working for you whereas if you were betting Under you would need to add in an extra risk variable to account for unforeseen goals.
Also when dealing with Over in the goals market you are able to better identify players who are going to score goals, it’s quite difficult to isolate players who will not score goals, or stop goals being scored. Obviously the goal keeper and defence has a lot to do with this but judging whether they will be beaten is a much easier task than judging whether they will come through!
This guide therefore is designed to help you in 2 main ways. Firstly we have the beginner’s system. This system gives you step by step instructions to follow which, if you follow correctly, will ensure that you profit from the 2.5 goals market. Then we have the Advanced Training section. This section will dissect the goals market, goal scorers, teams, different match types, the odds, individual players and strike partnerships and will provide you with the betting knowledge so that you can be able to look at a particular game and be able to say with conviction.
“There will be at least X amount of goals in this game”.
I have had people tell me after they read this manual that they were seeing win rates of over 80% which when the odds for the 2.5 goal market is typically between 1.6 and 2.4 then you can see just how profitable a good understanding of the goals market can be.
So start off by reading the Beginner’s system which outlines a basic system that I have used for years that has given me a pretty decent 60% strike rate with the average odds being around 1.9. Then once you have gotten used to doing that read the advanced system that will teach you as opposed to just telling you what to do. You will learn how to analyse games based on a number of key concepts and ultimately you should be able to read exactly how a game is going to play out to an incredible degree of accuracy!
Betting prediction for the match between Cardiff and Fulham no comments
The last two teams in the current Premier League standings Cardiff and Fulham will play against each other in a match from the 28th round which will decide the fate of one or even to both of the teams. A loss for either team would mean almost guaranteed relegation from the English elite and a possible draw would mean that almost certainly both teams will be doomed.
Both Cardiff and Fulham have really tragic last results as they have seven losses, two draws and a single victory in their last ten matches. Cardiff won at home against Norwich with 2-1 on February 1st and Fulham beat West Ham in their stadium on January 1st.
What kind of match the two worst teams in the league would play and which one of them will be able to take the victory? The bookmakers prefer the hosts from Cardiff to be the favorite in the match. Bet365 offers 2.35 for a home win, while William Hill offers 2.3. The lowest rate is proposed by Bet at home, where a home win in this match is estimated at 2.25.
The draw is highest offered by bet365 – 3.5, while Bet at home offers 3.35 and only 3.3 is offered by William Hill. Fulham’s chances to win this match are rated on 3.2 by bet365, 3.1 by William Hill and 3.05 by Bet at home.
What is the most likely outcome of this match? It is extremely difficult to predict, but one thing at least is clear from the statistics and it is that Fulham have scored at least one goal in their last four games while Cardiff City hasn’t been able to score a single goal in their last four matches. This is why my preferences for this match will be with the guests. The proposal of bet365 for a Fulham’s draw no bet win is 2.3, which seems more than good and would be my bet for this match.