A few days ago I wrote about a new betting system I test these days and which is connected with football matches between a stronger and a much weaker opponents. When on the half time in a such match the result is not in the favor of the favorite, I bet for Over the number of corners. All the needed details about why and how I bet with this betting system you can see in my previous post.
Now I continue with my conclusions connected with that betting system. What is perhaps the most important I found is that when on the half time the favorite in the match fails to lead at the end they are not the winners in nearly 80% of matches. It is more than interesting and certainly deserves future attention.
Usually when in such match the result on the halftime is even, the coefficient for the favorite rarely rise to more than 1.8, which gives a fairly good rate of around 2 for a draw or ultimate success for the underdog in the match.
That’s why I believe this football trend definitely deserves to be checked and I am going to do it in the next few days.
If I have to say few words about my initial idea about the corners, it can be said that after the first few matches this betting system is going around the even – I have won as much money as I stake, which is not so bad, but it is not what I hoped for.
It is important again to make the point that this betting system suggests lots of time on-line as there are around ten such matches daily, each at different times. Each match should be checked for the result at the half time and then if the search result is occurred a bet must be made.
That’s why, for now I continue to bet on the same way with the idea, firstly the system to become profitable and on the second place to collect additional information that I can use for my betting systems in the future.
El Clasico at Estadio Mestalla in Valencia will electrify football fans all over the world again. So far Barcelona has won Copa del Rey 26 times, Real Madrid has won 18 times.
In the last league match at the Santiago Bernabeu both teams has offered their fans a fantastic spectacle topped with seven goals. Will the scenario repeat itself? Bookmakers think that both teams have equal chance of winning (odds for Barcelona at 2,60, odds for draw 3,40, and odds for Real Madrid 2,60). Its hard not to agree with it, one match, two teams of the same level, still advantages for a particular team may be found. In my opinion one advantage is definitely referee Mateu Lahoz who is a good specialist and prefers tough matches. It can be a plus for Real Madrid. On the other hand there is Blaugrana which has won both league matches this year (2:1 and 3:4).
It is hards to write about injuries a week before a game, one suer thing is that Gerard Pique will be ready o play after an injury from a match against Atletico Madrid in Champions League.
I will not risk betting on win of one of the teams. According to he bookmakers the chances are equal. In my opinion the form of players will be crucial for the final success.
Direct matches statistics show that both teams feel best in attack. Average from the last 13 direct matches is 3.84 goals/match. Bookmakers for over 3 offer the odds of 2,00, for over 2.5 odds of 1,60. Although it is a final match and teams will be focused more on defence than attack I will play for over. Both teams are very strong so a high score would not surprising.
- Real : Barcelona 3:4
- Barcelona : Real 2:1
- Real : Barcelona 2:1
- Barcelona : Real 1:3
- Real : Barcelona 1:1
- Barcelona : Real 2:2
- Real : Barcelona 2:1
- Barcelona : Real 3:2
- Barcelona : Real 1:2
- Barcelona : Real 2:2
- Real : Barcelona 1:2
- Real : Barcelona 1:3
- Barcelona : Real 3:2
A few weeks ago I started to bet on a more unusual strategy that at first glance looked promising. The main in this system is to select football matches, where one of the two teams is a huge favorite for a victory (in my case, I choose matches that have lower than 1.4 odds for the favorite in the match). When the result is not in favor of the favorite on the halftime, I bet live for more corners than the rate offered by the bookmakers.
The idea is simple and is connected with the fact that the favorite in the match will keep trying to score a goal thus they will play more and more closer to the goal line of their opponents and hence to create more corners.
What are my first impressions from this betting system?
Firstly, it should be noted that many people use this method of betting, as on the halftime almost always the odds for under of corners are reduced by the bookmakers. This can be seen with bookies like bet365, William Hill and Bet at home. Obviously, this way of betting is popular, although it is most likely used in different ways by the various players.
Another thing that impressed me is that it is relatively difficult to playing this system since there are several matches of this type daily and during the weekend they are around 15 (this is because the bookies or at least William Hill, bet365 and Bet at home offers the opportunity for live betting on the number of corners only for the major championships), which means that the punter must be on-line all day. At least I missed dozens of matches that are appropriate for that kind of betting because I found it impossible to be at the computer at the time of the match.
The third and perhaps the most important conclusion that I found after the first series of bets I will tell you that in the next post.
The stadium that stands as a symbol of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal is threatening to become the court of public opinion in which his future is decided.
Successive home games beginning tonight with Swansea’s visit offers not only the chance to heal the wounds from Saturday’s 6-0 humiliation at Chelsea but also an occasion for Wenger to gauge whether he still has the popular vote.
There is no doubt in the boardroom. A three-year contract representing a small pay increase to nearly £8million a season has been on the table for some time. Wenger’s commitment remains complete but conviction in his abilities less so.
In among the acclamation for Wenger’s tenure stretching to 1,000 games, former Arsenal vice-chairman David Dein revealed the Frenchman’s habit of scrutinising his performance at the end of every season.
That introspection will be more rigorous this time around. Wenger is waiting to see how his team finish this campaign and the reaction of the club’s supporters to that denouement before formally extending his stay until at least 2016, with rumours of a shortened two-year deal surfacing today.
One of the banners may say ‘In Arsene We Trust’ but Emirates Stadium is no stranger to hostility.
Wenger has been subjected to chants of “You don’t know what you’re doing” in the past and, while the mood has been positive since the opening-day debacle against Aston Villa, there remains a faction of fans unhappy with the 64-year-old’s management.
And they surface with a vengeance on days like Saturday. The shambolic capitulation at Stamford Bridge reinforced the dissenters’ view: he is tactically inflexible, the team lack leaders, he should have bought a striker, he must spend more money and they still need more midfield bite. Ultimately, they believe Wenger has taken Arsenal as far as he can.
A record of one win from their last 15 matches against top-four opposition over the past five seasons identifies a clear issue that has not been addressed: three heavy losses and 17 goals shipped at Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool this season represent a serial nightmare revealing an underlying problem.
Lunchtime kick-offs are no excuse, even if they exacerbate the demands of European travel that preceded visits to the Etihad Stadium and Anfield. City are next up on Saturday evening as Arsenal look to improve that dismal record against their closest rivals but tonight’s encounter against a team without a win in eight games is a test of togetherness.
Typically, Wenger remains faithful to his players. “The crowd know that it is a very important game and I’m confident they will be behind our team and support us,” he said. “I think the crowd acknowledged since the start of the season that the team’s attitude was spot on, that they have given absolutely everything. You cannot fault this team for not wanting to do well.
“If we missed a game on Saturday I believe that overall, over the season, we played difficult cup games and difficult games in the Champions League, but this team has turned up with complete focus.
“I must say that this team is an absolute credit to the club with their attitude. They deserve success and therefore I hope that our crowd will be behind our team. It is a time to stick together. The Premier League is, of course, vital and the FA Cup as well is important. The season is always decided by how well you finish, so at the most important moment it’s vital that we stick together.”
The FA Cup’s importance to Arsenal cannot be underestimated. Win it and the trophy drought ends at nine years with a victory that can be painted as a segue to greater success. Lose it, especially given the absence of anyone in the top half of the Premier League left to oppose them, and the anger will be deafening.
A first League title since 2004 is now unlikely, although two wins this week would keep the faintest of hopes alive. An early goal tonight would at least settle the nerves and stem any latent vitriol. Wenger is believed to have been shaken by the antipathy towards him from some supporters in the darker moments since signing his last extension in 2010.
The vast majority remain supportive but you do not have to travel far to find an Arsenal fan ready to call time on Wenger’s 17-and-a-half years. Arsenal have benefited from home comforts this season. Wenger had previously voiced his concerns that the team were inhibited at home due to the unease in the crowd but this season they have the best defensive record of any Premier League team in front of their own fans. He needs that positive relationship to continue.
Goals are the only true constant in a football match. Throughout a season teams will win, lose and draw whereas goals will just keep flooding in. You may have been disappointed when your 1/7 favourite was beaten out 2-1 in a game they were leading from the opening minutes but I was quietly pleased because my Over 2.5 goal bet had just come in again.
This is the best part of betting on the goal market. No longer do you have to pit two teams against each other instead when you bet on the goal market the two teams are working together to provide you with betting profits!
I prefer to bet on the Over in the goals markets, normally the 2.5 goal market. This means that I like to bet that there will be Over 2.5 goals in a certain match. If there are then 3 or more goals I win, if there are 0, 1 or 2 goals I will lose. Conversely if I were to back Under 2.5 goals then 0, 1 or 2 goals would result in profit while 3+ would result in a loss.
There are a number of different goal markets you can bet on and after you have read and absorbed this information you should be able to have a go at all of them. The most popular ones are Over 0.5, Over 1.5 and so on up to usually Over 4.5 but with some bookmakers you can get up to Over 7.5. There are also 1st half goals and individual team goals that you can be betting. We prefer the 2.5 goals market because the odds are usually pretty decent while still having a pretty good strike rate, with 1.5 goals or less the strike rate required is much greater because of the odds and with 3.5 goals the odds are often not enough to cover the strike rate needed. 2.5 goals is the optimum level for odds and strike rate which makes it a perfect market for betting.
There is also another direction you can go in and that is spread betting. With spread betting you are paid your stake multiplied by per goal it is over the spread. E.g. you have backed there will be Over 2.45 goals in Match X, in the end the match finishes 4-2, instead of just winning your stake x the odds, you will win the total goal make-up (6) take away the spread (2.45) multiplied by your stake. So in the first example you would have made £10 if you backed £10 and the odds were 2.00. In the second case you would have made £35.50. Basically what I am trying to say is you can make a nice bit of money through spread betting if you think there are going to be even more than 2.5 goals in a game. With spread betting you are awarded by how correct you are not just if you were correct, this is helpful with goals betting because we are no longer limited to restricting ourselves to 1 particular market (Over 2.5, Over 3.5, Over 4.5 etc) instead we can back the Total Goal Spread and smile as every extra goal means extra money.
**Warning** Spread betting comes with additional risks to traditional odds betting and it is possible to lose more than you stake. You win more the more correct you are but you also lose more the more wrong you are.
I said that I prefer backing Over when dealing with goals. This is mainly due to the fact that I think it is much easier to determine teams who are likely to score than it is to determine teams who are unlikely to score. Especially as there are a huge number of ‘freak’ goals that occur in football. Goals can come from Penalties, Incorrect Offside Decisions, Goalkeeping Errors, Own Goals and the occasional Beach Ball! All of these things cannot be accounted for beforehand so if you were betting Over these things would all be working for you whereas if you were betting Under you would need to add in an extra risk variable to account for unforeseen goals.
Also when dealing with Over in the goals market you are able to better identify players who are going to score goals, it’s quite difficult to isolate players who will not score goals, or stop goals being scored. Obviously the goal keeper and defence has a lot to do with this but judging whether they will be beaten is a much easier task than judging whether they will come through!
This guide therefore is designed to help you in 2 main ways. Firstly we have the beginner’s system. This system gives you step by step instructions to follow which, if you follow correctly, will ensure that you profit from the 2.5 goals market. Then we have the Advanced Training section. This section will dissect the goals market, goal scorers, teams, different match types, the odds, individual players and strike partnerships and will provide you with the betting knowledge so that you can be able to look at a particular game and be able to say with conviction.
“There will be at least X amount of goals in this game”.
I have had people tell me after they read this manual that they were seeing win rates of over 80% which when the odds for the 2.5 goal market is typically between 1.6 and 2.4 then you can see just how profitable a good understanding of the goals market can be.
So start off by reading the Beginner’s system which outlines a basic system that I have used for years that has given me a pretty decent 60% strike rate with the average odds being around 1.9. Then once you have gotten used to doing that read the advanced system that will teach you as opposed to just telling you what to do. You will learn how to analyse games based on a number of key concepts and ultimately you should be able to read exactly how a game is going to play out to an incredible degree of accuracy!
The last two teams in the current Premier League standings Cardiff and Fulham will play against each other in a match from the 28th round which will decide the fate of one or even to both of the teams. A loss for either team would mean almost guaranteed relegation from the English elite and a possible draw would mean that almost certainly both teams will be doomed.
Both Cardiff and Fulham have really tragic last results as they have seven losses, two draws and a single victory in their last ten matches. Cardiff won at home against Norwich with 2-1 on February 1st and Fulham beat West Ham in their stadium on January 1st.
What kind of match the two worst teams in the league would play and which one of them will be able to take the victory? The bookmakers prefer the hosts from Cardiff to be the favorite in the match. Bet365 offers 2.35 for a home win, while William Hill offers 2.3. The lowest rate is proposed by Bet at home, where a home win in this match is estimated at 2.25.
The draw is highest offered by bet365 – 3.5, while Bet at home offers 3.35 and only 3.3 is offered by William Hill. Fulham’s chances to win this match are rated on 3.2 by bet365, 3.1 by William Hill and 3.05 by Bet at home.
What is the most likely outcome of this match? It is extremely difficult to predict, but one thing at least is clear from the statistics and it is that Fulham have scored at least one goal in their last four games while Cardiff City hasn’t been able to score a single goal in their last four matches. This is why my preferences for this match will be with the guests. The proposal of bet365 for a Fulham’s draw no bet win is 2.3, which seems more than good and would be my bet for this match.
One of the oldest NBA total betting systems around is simply to bet the under in the game with the lowest posted total on the board, provided there are a minimum of four games being played.
For example, if the following games are being played on any given night:
Oklahoma City 198
Utah – 12
New Jersey -2
Golden State 192.5
L.A. Clippers 199
The bet would be to wager on under in the Miami vs. Indiana game, as the over/under of 185 is lower than any of the other posted totals.
Some bettors will double up after losses and try to show a profit any time the system wins, although that philosophy is always risky. Instead of doubling up, a bettor would probably be best served by waiting until the system has several losing days in a row and then get involved.
The method makes sense from a logical perspective, since most bettors prefer to bet overs, as it’s typically more enjoyable to root for scoring, bettors are less likely to bet under such a low total. Any time a sports bettor can place a wager against the public, they will generally have the advantage over the long run.
Barcelona fell behind and were hampered a bit by Levante, as predicted, but found their pace soon enough and blew their visitors away with a 5-1 thrashing despite going behind early. I suspect they will hammer Valencia too.
You would normally bet on Barca to score a bundle and this is a great spot with a lot of reason to do so. They are home, improving with Messi getting back into the side, and are facing a Valencia side that has been conceding a fair few goals this season. No fewer than 6 different sides have scored at least 3 in a game against them, so no reason to think Barca will be quietened at home.
The home win is a guarantee, with Barca winning the last 6 home meetings with Valencia. They are coming off a 4-1 and 5-1 win over Levante, either side of a 3-0 beating of Malaga. Goals should definitely come in this one. Valencia, let’s not forget, are still getting used to their new manager, and while they have drawn their last 2, they have yet to win under the new man. Atletico Madrid, fighting for the title, beat them recently, to nil.
Barca could do better than that 2-0 result. They certainly will not back off when ahead, as they will want to improve the goal difference which is proving like it might be important. Messi has not scored since his return, but this is a side he loves scoring against. He has already scored a hat trick against them, the 8th time he has done that against Valencia!! Perhaps a bet on him to score at least 2 may be profitable.
I’m going to stick my neck out a bit on this one. I was thinking about -2 on the AH, but with Barca scoring so many goals in their last 3 games, perhaps we can expect a 3-0 or a 4-1 result. Take Barcelona to win this by at least 3 goals.
Baseball and Hockey Totals
Baseball and hockey totals wagers use the same principal as football and basketball overs/unders, where the bookmaker posts a number and you can bet either over that total or under the total, but there is one essential difference and that rests in the amount of money a bettor must risk to win $100.
Because scoring in baseball and hockey is so much lower than in football or basketball, the bookmakers are reluctant to change the number of a total and instead will adjust the odds. Example: If the over/under number on the Dodgers and the Giants is 9 and a bettor places a $500 wager on the over, the bookmaker is unlikely to raise the total to 9.5. Instead, he will make bettors who wish to wager over 9 risk $120 to win $100, which is written as -120. Those wishing to bet the under would then be able to wager at even money or +100, as totals nearly always use a difference of .2, commonly called “20 cents.”
If people continue to bet the over, the bookmaker will continue to adjust the odds upward and eventually bettors may have to risk $145 to win $100, or -145. In this case, an under bettor would risk $100 to win $125. The bookmaker will generally raise the odds up to -145 before raising the total to the next number, which in this case would be 9.5.
Betting overs/unders is another way to add some excitement to a game and many times will offer more betting value than trying to pick the winner. Many serious bettors concentrate on totals, believing they are easier to win than picking which team is going to cover the spread. Now that you understand overs/unders, you’re closer to experiencing the “total” sports betting adventure.
Many sports bettors believe betting on overs/unders is easier than trying to predict the winner of a game and bookmakers tend to agree with that fact by placing smaller betting limits on overs/unders than they do when betting a team, either against the point spread or on the money line.
Overs/unders, more commonly referred to as totals, are a type of betting opportunity offered to gamblers where they may bet that the final score of a game is over the bookmaker’s posted total or it goes under the number. The winner of a totals bet is determined by adding the final score of both teams. It’s that simple.
Imagine the New York Jets are playing the Miami Dolphins and the posted total is 40. If you bet over on the game, you win your bet if the two teams combine for more than 40 points. If the Dolphins win 24-17, for example, you have made a winning bet. If the Dolphins were to win 24-14, you would lose the over bet, as the final combined score was just 38. If the final score added up to 40, the bet would be considered a push, or a tie, and your money is returned to you.
Football and Basketball Totals
When betting on football and basketball totals, the bettor risks $11 to win $10, just as they do when making a bet against the point spread. If the bookmaker can get an equal amount of money wagered on the over and the under, he is guaranteed to make money no matter what the final score is.
Most NFL football totals will range between 32 and 52, with an average number right around 41 points. If two high scoring teams with poor defenses are playing each other, the total may be posted higher.On rare occasions, two sound defensive teams playing in poor, cold weather, may see the total dip below 32, but this doesn’t happen too often.
College football totals may be even higher, as some teams have great offenses and equally poor defenses. College football totals have been known to reach into the 70-point range.
When a bookmaker accepts a maximum bet on a football total, they will typically adjust the line by .5 points in an effort to attract money bet the other way, although this is at the discretion of the individual bookmaker. They may move the line a full point or they may not move it at all.
Basketball totals work in exactly the same manner as football totals, where the bettor risks $11 to win $10. Naturally, the over/under numbers are much higher, as many more points will be scored in a basketball game, as opposed to a football game, and totals can range from 120, for a low scoring NCAA team, well into the 200s for an NBA game.
When bookmakers accept a maximum wager on a basketball total they will typically respond by adjusting the line 1.5 points in an effort to attract people to be the other way. Example: If the posted total on the New York Knicks and the New Jersey Nets is 190 and a bettor places a $500 wager on the over, which happens to be the maximum bet allowed at a particular sportsbook. The sportsbook would then raise the total to 191.5 in an attempt to get people to wager money on the under.